Million-dollar 1st generation Tesla Roadsters?

To really grasp the future potential, we’ll need to look at some of the facts behind this unique car. But first, it would serve us well to gain a little bit of historic perspective and comparative context.

I remember in the 80s and 90s the Ferrari Daytona sored in value while the Lamborghini Miura languished. With more than 1,400 Daytonas but only 764 Miuras built, the Miura is almost twice as rare. I could never understand why people flocked to the Daytona (a nice, but fairly conventional grand touring car) while completely ignoring the world’s first mid-engine super car… the Miura. This visually stunning masterpiece was THE technological tour-de-force of the era.

Why the original Tesla Roadster might be the best collector car opportunity in history.

1st generation Tesla Roadster prices bottomed in 2015-2019 at an average of $40,000-$60,000 but have more than doubled since, with some examples now exceeding the ¼ million-dollar mark.

I believe that the best examples are headed for prices far North of $1 million… and here’s why.

1. It is one of only 4 cars in history to cause a complete “sea-change” transformation of the automotive industry. EVs are currently experiencing S-curve adoption, with sales increasing logarithmically year after year. It has now become obvious that any car company that does not go electric by the end of this decade will die. Therefore, the Tesla Roadster is 1 of only 4 “truly important” cars in automotive history.

The four cars that transformed the industry are:

I. The 1886 Benz Patent Motorwagen started the automotive industry.

II. The 1908 Ford model T brought with it production line technology. Most people don’t know this, but before World War I there were more than 1,300 American automotive companies. It was the production line that pretty much killed off any competitor who did not automate.

III. The 1912 Cadillac introduced the electric starter. At the beginning of the 20th century the predominant technologies were electric and steam. The introduction of the electric starter killed off the predominant technologies, bringing internal combustion to the forefront.

By the end of the 1920s electric cars had become extinct. For the next 80 years people tried to build a compelling electric car, but always failed.

IV. Then in 2008, the Tesla Roadster was the first electric car to reach the right balance between price, range, charge time, battery life, and performance — starting the modern EV revolution. Just a few years from now people will realize this is the car that caused the fourth turning, the fourth reinvention of the automotive industry. Someday ALL cars will be electric… and it’s only because of the Tesla Roadster.

2. Tesla Motors Inc. was founded upon the Roadster, and thus it started the modern EV revolution. This car was “proof of concept” that an electric car could be compelling, successfully sold to the public, and an absolute blast to drive.

3. In the future, the Tesla Roadster will become known as “the car that killed the internal combustion engine.”

7. It’s rare, with less than 1,500 produced for the US and Canada, and less than 1000 for the rest of the world. Even most current Tesla owners have never seen one and do not know that this car ever existed. When Tesla released the model S in 2012, they took in many Roadsters in trade, most of which were used as parts cars to keep existing Roadsters on the road. When you combine this figure with those that have been lost due to accidents and bricking (a dead battery that cannot be recovered), there are now probably less than 2,000 Roadsters left worldwide, and less than 1,200 in the western hemisphere.

But how could the best examples possibly exceed the $1 million price target?

Well, that’s all a matter of supply and demand. We just covered supply, so now let’s try to figure out what future demand for the original Tesla Roadster could be. To do that, we first need to make a list of current facts and future assumptions.

Sometime in the early 2030s there will be more than 100 million Teslas on the road.

Most Tesla owners absolutely love their cars. In fact, many owners have an obsession and infatuation with Tesla which borders on fanaticism. Unlike any other car brand in the world, this love of their cars has spawned literally thousands of websites, newsletters, and video channels, all in support of Tesla.

According to the Federal Reserve, 10% of the US population owns 2/3 of all deposits and the other 90% share the other third.  So, for each 10 people 1 person is twice as wealthy than the other nine people combined, and since Tesla tends to attract a more affluent crowd the percentage of well-to-do Tesla owners may be higher than 10%.

In my experience approximately 1 out of every 10 people are car people (mostly guys who love cars), but just to be safe, let’s estimate 1 out of every 20.

So, that’s:

1. 100 million people who absolutely love their Tesla’s.

2. 10% of those are well-to-do, so that’s 10 million wealthy Tesla lovers.

3. 3. 5% of those are nuts about cars, so that’s ½ million wealthy Tesla loving car people.

4. If just 1% (1 in 100) of those wealthy Tesla loving car people get serious about acquiring a Roadster, that’s 5,000 people trying to bid on the very few (probably 5–30) cars that come up for sale each year. Even if you cut the number of bidders in half, you’d still end up with an extraordinary number of people all chasing the same, very limited quantity of cars. Throughout the centuries only one thing has resolved the problem of way too much demand for a very limited supply… and that one thing is price.

But which roadsters will do best?

First generation Tesla Roadsters came in several variations. So, of the 1,200 Tesla Roadsters in the western hemisphere, which ones will be the most collectible and command the highest prices? Well, to me the variations of collectability fall into three distinct investment categories.

1. 10 Validation Prototypes, 30 Founders Edition, and 100 signature 100s (cars which carry a plaque signed by Elon Musk and all of the Tesla employees along with the limited-edition number, like: 44/100). This category includes versions 1 and 1.5.

2. The next approximately 860 standard production cars. (More than half of all the cars produced). This category includes versions 1.5 and 2.

3. This category is made up of only 2.5s. Version 2.5 featured numerous improvements both mechanical and visual. New fully adjustable suspension made the car ride and

I believe something similar may play out for the 1st generation Tesla Roadster in the future. I believe the category 2 standard production cars will do very well, but I think investment categories 1 and 3 will do much, much better. So, (since category 1 has already appreciated substantially), I collect mostly category 3s because of the many improvements, the supercar looks, and I hope, much bigger profit potential

Conclusion: I think the price of these cars is ultimately headed to the moon, and the $1 million price target for the very best examples is extremely conservative.